Greg Guy Weighs In on the Future of Public Radio After Federal Funding Cuts

The loss of federal dollars is forcing many public radio and television outlets to reassess their budgets and chart a course through an altered financial landscape. For some, that may involve deciding which broadcast signals remain essential — and which could be sold to generate much-needed capital.

“CPB funding just got clawed back. It is not coming back for at least four more years. It’s also true that underwriting and donation support have been waning for the past five years, so stations are facing a double whammy of ‘what does the future really look like?’” says Greg Guy, founder and Managing Partner of Tideline Partners. “My message to them is that it is better to find out now what their assets are worth, and what they can do strategically, whether it is selling stations or towers, because they’re going to need to make decisions.”

According to a financial modeling analysis by Semipublic. Before the cuts, two-thirds of public stations faced little risk of closure. Now, about 15% — including every outlet that derived more than half of its revenue from federal aid — are at risk of shutting down within three years. The threat looms largest for Native Tribe-owned public media (56% at risk) and Black-owned broadcasters (35% at risk), with rural stations bearing a disproportionate share of the impact.

Guy says inquiries have already begun. “I’ve gotten a lot of calls, mostly for valuations and strategically asking about their options,” he notes. “So, there are definitely people already taking a look at it, and I know activity hasn’t really picked up yet since we’re just a few weeks from the announcement. I think very realistically that a bigger wave is coming.”

For public broadcasters with multiple frequencies, selling secondary or non-core assets could provide a financial bridge, covering the loss of federal dollars and funding years of operating expenses. Guy anticipates most sales will involve auxiliary properties such as second or third stations in a market, translators, and repeaters — assets that may soon be considered expendable. “It’s going to be a tough decision for many, because it is balancing mission with the market,” he observes.

Unlike commercial broadcasters, whose valuations are tied to both coverage and revenue, noncommercial stations are often appraised largely on “stick value” — the population reached by the signal (“per pop”). The limited buyer pool for noncommercial frequencies has been offset in recent years by an active wave of acquisitions from religious broadcasters, who remain in expansion mode.

Semipublic’s data also points to geographic challenges. Rural areas dominate the list of most federally reliant public stations, with four of the top ten in Alaska. For some of these outlets, Guy says, finding a buyer could prove difficult.

“Get smart about what your value is quickly so you can make strategic decisions when that time comes, because that time is coming. It’s coming pretty soon,” he advises.

📖 This article first appeared on Inside Radio: Funding Cuts Begin Pushing Public Broadcasters To Consider Station Sales.